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![\"Azevedo](\"https://ep01.epimg.net/economia/imagenes/2013/12/07/actualidad/1386406353_121732_1386407259_noticia_normal.jpg\")
Azevedo celebra el acuerdo con el ministro indonesio de Comercio. SONNY TUMBELAKA AFP\r\n\r\n
Los 159 países de la Organización Mundial del Comercio (OMC) han conseguido sacar adelante el primer acuerdo global en casi dos décadas para impulsar el comercio. La principal medida —alcanzada en Bali (Indonesia) ayer tras cuatro días de negociaciones— se refiere la simplificación de los trámites en las aduanas para que se acelere el paso de bienes y sea más transparente. El pacto, que ha supuesto un respiro para la maltrecha credibilidad de la OMC, se traducirá en un aumento del comercio internacional de un billón de dólares (730.000 millones de euros) y creará 21 millones de empleos, según los cálculos del Instituto de Economía Internacional Peterson.
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El acuerdo también da mejores condiciones a los países pobres para poder comerciar y permite a los países en desarrollo esquivar, aunque sea temporalmente, las normas del comercio mundial sobre subsidios a las explotaciones agrícolas y ganaderas si el objetivo es dar de comer a los pobres. El visto bueno estadounidense a un programa de India para almacenar alimentos que luego podrá vender a su población con fuertes subsidios (algo prohibido por la OMC) ha sido el detonante para asegurar el acuerdo, calificado de histórico por el director general de la OMC, el brasileño Roberto Azevêdo. “Por primera vez en nuestra historia, la OMC ha cumplido realmente”, dijo Azevêdo a los participantes en las conversaciones. “Esta vez, todos los miembros se han puesto de acuerdo. Hemos devuelto al mundo a la OMC. Seguimos trabajando. Bali es solo el comienzo”, declaró.
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India ha conseguido que Estados Unidos acepte una solución de compromiso: el acuerdo da un plazo de cuatro años para encontrar encaje a los programas públicos que, como el de India, facilitan alimentos baratos a los pobres. Además, India se ha asegurado que la OMC no impugne su plan mientras no se llegue a algún arreglo.
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A última hora, Cuba estuvo a punto de hacer naufragar el acuerdo porque no incluía el levantamiento del embargo estadounidense, lo que ha hecho que las conversaciones se alargaran hasta la madrugada de ayer. Finalmente, aceptó el acuerdo.
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El pacto es el primero de alcance global desde la creación de la OMC en 1995. Además, supone un impulso al organismo, incapaz de cerrar acuerdos de calado para eliminar barreras al comercio mundial tras 12 años de negociaciones infructuosas de la llamada Ronda de Doha. De hecho, los representantes eran conscientes de que un nuevo fracaso en Bali habría condenado a la OMC a la irrelevancia e impulsaría los pactos bilaterales o regionales.
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Los representantes de los países participantes, entre ellos España, coincidieron en destacar la importancia del acuerdo. “Es bueno tanto para los países desarrollados como para los países en desarrollo”, celebró el representante de Comercio de EE UU, Michael Froman. Los grupos vinculados con las empresas también destacaron los beneficios del nuevo acuerdo, que está pendiente de la aprobación de los Gobiernos miembros de la organización. Oxfam manifestó su acuerdo con la tregua dada a programas de alimentos como el de India, pero añadió que el acuerdo, en general, no supone grandes cambios respecto a la actualidad.
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Bosnia celebró sus últimas elecciones generales en octubre de 2010, pero ha tenido que transcurrir casi año y medio para que su Gobierno, multiétnico, multipartidista, haya podido empezar a funcionar, precariamente. Esta parálisis política es fiel trasunto del marasmo que atenaza a la exrepública yugoslava 20 años después de que comenzara el asedio de Sarajevo, y con él la guerra más exterminadora de la Europa reciente. Un marasmo que proyecta serias dudas sobre su viabilidad tal y como fue prevista en los acuerdos de Dayton, que en 1995 acabaron con la tragedia.
\r\n\r\nBosnia es un Estado especialmente complejo, compuesto por dos entidades (la Republika Srspka, serbia, y la Federación bosnio-croata), una presidencia tripartita y un Gobierno central de escasos poderes. EE UU puso fin a la guerra en Dayton, pero no preparó el camino para la unificación de un país en el que tres nacionalismos que aglutinan el poder y siguen sin soportarse desarrollan agendas centrífugas. Los herederos de Radovan Karadzic, particularmente, en la mitad serbia de Bosnia, persiguen la secesión con determinación fundamentalista, buscando que Europa acabe dando la batalla por perdida y les acepte como Estado separado. Pero también los croatas se consideran extraños en su federación con los bosniomusulmanes. Los políticos bosnios, sin visión común de futuro, prefieren la retórica nacionalista, que explota miedos y resentimientos, a la puesta en pie de instituciones centrales e incluyentes. Los intentos de la UE, a través de sucesivos procónsules con amplios poderes y un río de dinero, no han conseguido hacer de Bosnia un Estado funcional.
\r\nLas heridas de la guerra son tan profundas como la división de Bosnia. El mayor peligro que acecha al varado país balcánico es el retroceso hacia los presupuestos que hicieron posible su terrible pasado. El riesgo es tan real como para que Europa (que miró hacia otro lado en momentos críticos) haga de él una prioridad real.
\r\nBosnia es el espejo más deformado, pero no la única situación irresuelta por la implosión yugoslava. Los serbios de Kosovo votaron recientemente en un simbólico referéndum no aceptar la autoridad del nuevo Estado. Agravan así las tensiones interétnicas y complican el camino de Serbia hacia la Unión Europea, en el que resultarán decisivas las elecciones adelantadas del mes próximo y del que las relaciones de Belgrado con su antigua provincia son elemento determinante.
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