Es tan difícil determinar el momento en el que una sociedad pierde el miedo que la ha mantenido atenazada años frente al dictador de turno, como saber cuándo ese gobernante entiende que su tiempo ha periclitado. Ni aún hoy podemos explicar por qué en Túnez la inmolación de Mohamed Bouazizi desencadenó una revuelta nacional que llevó a Ben Alí a la huida y, sin embargo, eso no se produjo, por ejemplo, como consecuencia de las revueltas que en 2008 pusieron en pie de guerra a los mineros en Gafsa. Del mismo modo, más allá de apelar a un cierto efecto de contagio, tampoco podemos precisar las razones por las que los egipcios se han lanzado a la calle y si eso, inevitablemente, supondrá la inmediata fuga de Hosni Mubarak.
\r\nEsto nos lleva, en primer lugar, a reconocer la limitada capacidad prospectiva de los análisis realizados por servicios de inteligencia, centros de estudios y profetas diversos, asumiendo que estamos condenados a la incertidumbre y a la sorpresa. Es probablemente esta limitación la que lleva mayoritariamente a suponer que, a partir del ejemplo tunecino, se producirá un \"efecto dominó\" por el que el resto de los países árabes seguirán inmediata y automáticamente la misma senda. Es bien cierto que en todos ellos confluyen las mismas causas estructurales que han servido de caldo de cultivo para la explosión tunecina y egipcia. En todos son evidentes las deficiencias derivadas de una gestión gubernamental corrupta e ineficiente, asentada en un aparato represivo que niega la voz a cualquier disidencia y consentida desde el exterior (tanto Washington como Bruselas). Pero conviene escapar del simplismo que supone considerar como homogéneos a los 22 países árabes y a sus 300 millones de habitantes.
\r\nEn Túnez estamos asistiendo a una movilización tan general como espontánea, en un país sin estructuras políticas alternativas al dominio absoluto del Reagrupamiento Constitucional Democrático, en el que se ha apoyado Ben Alí para desarrollar lo que se conocía como \"cuasi mafia\". Esa ausencia de actores políticos sólidos- como efecto directo de la represión del régimen- explica la riqueza de la revuelta, pero plantea un serio interrogante sobre la próxima etapa. Podemos entender que personajes como Rachid Ghanuchi (En Nahda) o Moncef Marzouki (Congreso para la República) son figuras del pasado, pero no sabemos cuáles pueden ser los líderes del mañana. Sería irreflexivo creer que la democracia ya está asegurada en Túnez, cuando falta por disolver el partido del poder (con sus células de control ciudadano) y la policía política, y nombrar un gobierno de estricto perfil técnico únicamente encargado de organizar las elecciones y abrir un proceso constituyente. Muchas son aún las incógnitas por resolver antes de que la democracia llegue, por primera vez, a un país árabe.
\r\n\r\n
Egipto, por el contrario, ya estaba viviendo un proceso de sucesión del poder en el que cada actor movía sus fichas con más o menos disimulo. Por un lado, el octogenario y enfermo Mubarak pretendía asegurar la continuidad del régimen a través de su hijo Gamal (tal vez acompañado del influyente jefe de los servicios de inteligencia, Omar Suleiman). Para ello no tuvo reparo alguno en manipular las elecciones legislativas del pasado noviembre (expulsando del parlamento a los Hermanos Musulmanes para asegurarse un tránsito más tranquilo hasta las presidenciales de septiembre). Su problema no ha estado en la calle, forzadamente tranquila hasta ayer, sino en el propio régimen, con unas fuerzas armadas crecientemente opuestas a sus designios. En un país donde desde Nasser todos los presidentes proceden de la milicia, y donde las fuerzas armadas son un actores políticos (y económicos) de primera línea, cabe suponer que no iban a asentir pasivamente a lo que el desgastado rais deseara.
\r\nEn esa línea cobra sentido la hipótesis de que el ejército haya decidido jugar con fuego, si no alentando sí al menos consistiendo la actual movilización con vistas a debilitar aún más a Mubarak y colocarse así en condiciones de imponer sus planes (y a su candidato) en la etapa que, inevitablemente, se abre ahora en Egipto. En ese contexto, la movilización popular podría no ser más que el instrumento de quienes no pretenden traer la democracia al país sino únicamente provocar un cambio personal en su liderazgo. Evidentemente, se trata de un juego de alto riesgo porque nada garantiza el control de la situación (ni siquiera con los casi 1,5 millones de policías y 460.000 soldados) ante una sociedad hastiada de la clase política y con actores tan poderosos como los Hermanos Musulmanes, obligados ahora a actuar desde la calle. Puede entenderse que otros actores, como Mohamed El Baradei, intenten igualmente sacar partido de la situación, aunque al no contar con una base propia solo podrá tener opciones en la medida que los militares no se entiendan finalmente con el clan de Mubarak y apuesten por él como una figura de transición.
\r\nEn definitiva, las movilizaciones son un hecho generalizado en la zona, pero la democracia no es necesariamente lo que surgirá de ellas. Y esto es así no tanto por que vaya a imponerse el islamismo radical- espantajo clásico para justificar la represión interna-, sino por el peso de una inercia que ha llevado durante décadas, tanto a los gobernantes locales como a las potencias occidentales que les apoyan, a preferir la estabilidad a toda costa. Túnez puede o no abrir un nuevo capítulo en la historia del mundo árabe. En Egipto son aún más poderosas las razones que apuntan a un bloqueo del proceso (baste comprobar el temor con el que Washington, mientras Israel y la Unión Europea callan igualmente inquietos, muestra su apoyo a la democracia mientras presiona a Mubarak para que retome el control con algunas reformas).
\r\nEn el fondo no se trata de miedo a la democracia en sí, vista como plenamente beneficiosa a largo plazo, sino al periodo transitorio que hay que recorrer desde las actuales sociedades cerradas del mundo árabe hasta desembocar en otras abiertas. En ese tránsito los gobernantes locales temen, con razón, que perderán el poder y los países occidentales que surgirán nuevos actores- islamistas o no- que quizás no quieran ser acomodaticios a sus intereses como lo han sido hasta ahora los dirigentes que han apoyado. Es la ciudadanía árabe la que debe liderar la tarea pendiente, pero nuestra ayuda es imprescindible. Ojalá no les fallemos nuevamente mientras entonamos la despedida a Mubarak.
\r\nJesús A. Núñez Villaverde. Codirector del Instituto de Estudios sobre Conflictos y Acción Humanitaria (IECAH)
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